<history of philosophy, biography> english clergyman and mathematician (1702-1761). "Bayes theorem," first stated in his Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances (1764), proposes that evidence confirms the likelihood of an hypothesis only to the degree that the appearance of this evidence would be more probable with the assumption of the hypothesis than without it. Recommended Reading: Bradley P. Carlin and Thomas A. Louis, Bayes and Empirical Bayes Methods for Data Analysis (CRC, 2000); Empirical Bayes and Likelihood Inference, ed. by S. E. Ahmed and N. Reid (Springer Verlag, 2000); and John Earman, Bayes or Bust?: A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation (Bradford, 1992).
[A Dictionary of Philosophical Terms and Names]
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